My working title for this post was
“Non-Shooting Civil War In America.” I thought that might be over the top, if only by a little.
I don’t see immediate danger of violent civil war in America, but I think today’s U.S. government shutdown is collapse
by premeditated sabotage by political failure. In other words, our regular political process for resolving differences has failed. Moreover, the failure is not accidental; it’s intentional. Congress, especially, has failed big time.
The reason there’s no panic (yet) is that most of us believe the government shutdown is temporary. Let us hope that is the case. But be aware that
cataclysmic historic social and political upheavals don’t happen suddenly. They build by small steps. The step-by-step sleepwalk leading to World War II is painfully obvious in the history of the 1920s and 1930s.
More relevant to present events in America is the history of the 1850s leading to the Civil War. Social and economic divisions in the U.S. were apparent from the beginning of the nation. Up until 1850, differences were always defused by compromise. After 1850, many hoped the Union could still be saved, and many searched for compromise. But step-by-step over a decade, passions became inflamed in both North and South. The political process failed to achieve a peaceful resolution.
Sometimes political failure goes downhill with no brakes. Unforeseen events can accelerate the momentum. A runaway locomotive roars through an invisible sound barrier and becomes as unstable as nitroglycerin.
What is the reason to believe the government shutdown will be brief? Haven’t extreme conservatives accomplished the goal they’ve been chasing for 50 years or more — limited government?
The U.S. government is shut down, except for essential employees. The military, prison guards, and air traffic controllers stay on the job. Isn’t that exactly the limited government the extreme right wants? National defense and homeland security, and nothing else. Hard-line conservatives don’t want to spend money on parks, environmental regulation, nutrition programs. They don’t want taxes to be collected, and they certainly have no sympathy for unemployed government workers. What’s the problem? Well, Social Security checks are still going out; conservatives must be a bit miffed about that.
Face it, the Tea Party is in heaven right now. I don’t see a referee and I don’t see a penalty flag. Why would the Tea Party give up the goal they’ve scored?
The take-away: America’s political system is in failure. If the situation continues for a few weeks and leads to default on the federal debt, America will then be in political collapse. From there, the situation is more likely to get worse than better.
Scenario: Denial and complacency give way to inflamed passions on all sides. The Tea Party becomes bolder. Average Americans become resigned: “This ain’t so bad. I can get by, long as airplanes don’t fall out of the sky.”
Other average Americans become incensed. Services they need grind to a halt. The economy is nose down, going into free fall.
When that happens — and what, exactly, is to prevent it? — America will be in political collapse. And economic collapse. Sinking like a stone.
A panicked struggle to regain control would look and feel exactly like North and South in the days before Fort Sumter. Inflamed passions, dug-in positions, determination to fight for principle.
Please note that I am NOT advocating civil war. I’m sounding a warning. There may be a few days left to avert disaster. If passions do become inflamed past the point of no return, I pray it will be a non-shooting civil war.
But please remember, an angry minority in America is armed to the teeth.
Maps showing the general outline of “Divided America” are here.
For more thoughts, read “Democracy At A Crossroads.”
What do you think is going to happen?
— John Hayden
- Senator Tom Harkin: Politics Has Reached Civil War Levels (blackchristiannews.com)
- Now What? Government shutdown to be felt across America (foxnews.com)
- Senator Says Politics Have Reached Civil War Levels (gopthedailydose.com)
- GOP Descends Into Civil War Over Obamacare As Shutdown Looms (talkingpointsmemo.com)
- Rebutting Conventional Wisdom: Government Shutdown and the Battle to Stop Obamacare (heritageaction.com)
- Technology makes this government shutdown more dangerous than 1995 (techi.com)
- The Federal Government Shutdown: A Marriage Of Bad Policy And Toxic Economics (forbes.com)
- Look At What Gets Affected In A Government Shutdown, And You’ll See Why It Could Last A Long Time (businessinsider.com)
- U.S. government shutdown poses risk to Canada’s economy (thestar.com)
- How the looming U.S. government shutdown could drag into Canada (metronews.ca)
Pingback: Last Chance | Clarissa's Blog
Thanks for the pingback, Clarissa. Your take on the matter is right on, IMO. How did you ever roll up more than a million views on your blog? I suspect it’s because you post frequently and have a strong point of view.
Interesting as a European to read a bit more a try to comprehend what’s going on over in America – I didn’t even know governments could “shut down”! haha I’ve created a history blog at http://publishistory.wordpress.com/, and would love to get your feedback on my articles! All the best 🙂
Maybe they ought to stay shut down till all the bills are paid and there is zero debt. Except cut off that congress, presidential and senate pay too.
Contradiction alert, Mark! Only prob is, if govt stays shut down and goes into default in a few weeks, then most bills will not get paid at all, the full faith and credit of the USA will be in shreds, China will sell all its U.S. bonds and stocks, the economy will crash, and interest on the national debt will continue to accrue. Are any of those consequences helpful?
I can only hope that the House GOP will figure out that most Americans will blame them for the suffering that develops, and pull some face saving exit strategy together. Either that or John Boehner will arrange for someone to visit each of them at their homes late at night and show them Von Goom’s Gambit.
Which is as to say, I’m down to praying for supernatural intervention.
Stephen King, please call your office.