Author Archives: Editor (Retired)

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About Editor (Retired)

Newsman, blogger, editor, writer (and no longer young).

The Black Swan Visits Japan: 9.0 Earthquake, Tsunamis, Nuclear Power Plants

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The Black Swan has landed in Japan.

Fair-use of Copyright cover from “The Black Swan” via Wikipedia.

The earthquake(s) and tsunami(s) in Japan, and their terrible consequences, are straight out of “The Black Swan,” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The subtitle is: “The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE.” (No, we’re not talking about a ballet film.) If you plan to continue living in the unpredictable world of the 21st Century, you probably should read “The Black Swan.” Just my opinion. Mr. Taleb’s home page is here.

A Black Swan is an event that’s “outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility,” Mr. Taleb writes.

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Property Virgins (via The Clueless Farm Hand)

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The Virginia welcome sign at the Virginia welc...

Image via Wikipedia

Update! Update! The Clueless Farmhands have a deal to buy their Virginia farm, complete with livable house. The bank suddenly decided to OK the short sale. See their update post here. It contains a long list of things they have to do to get the farm running this Spring. (Far from a leisurely idyllic existence, farming is probably more like endless work and 24-7 responsibility.) But I guess you’re your own boss and can work at your own pace, so far as Mother Nature allows. If the Clueless Farmhands can pull it off, maybe other people can do it! Opens up your limited career and lifestyle options, doesn’t it? Do you think you could do it?

End of Update.

You’ve had the fantasy. Admit it. What you really want is a few acres of farmland and a house. You’d like to buy it dirt cheap, because it IS mostly dirt, after all.

You want to chuck the career and the credit cards. Tell your boss to take this job and . . . Escape from the materialism, the congestion, the commute.

You’d trade it all in for freedom and simplicity. Life on the farm.

The Clueless Farmhand couple has done what you dream of doing. They’ve searched five counties in rural Virginia. They’ve looked at single-wides, double-wides, and actual houses. They think they’re ready to take the plunge.

I suspect most folks in Consternation-land will find their story enlightening. At last report . . .

Property Virgins You would think during these days of foreclosures it would be easy to pick up a nice old farmhouse with a bit of land and some serviceable outbuildings for a song. For the past six months or so … Read More

via The Clueless Farm Hand

March 9, 2011 Update: The Clueless Farm Hand has posted an update, detailing the bumpy road to buying a distressed property via a short sale. I had heard that buying real estate through foreclosures and short sales could be problematic, but this was an eye-opener for me. — John Hayden

You Decide: How Much Is A Worker Worth? What Is Fair Pay?

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Last night, I attended a meeting about social justice issues. Naturally, the controversy about public worker salaries and unions in Wisconsin came up.

One person commented, “The workers in Wisconsin are not poorly paid.” As if that were a known fact.

We all have preconceived notions about how much certain workers are paid. (When we say “public workers,” we’re often thinking of  teachers, firefighters, and police officers. It is important to point out that by the very nature of state and local government, large numbers of the workers are in traditionally low-paying  jobs requiring low levels of skill or education.)  What do you think is fair pay? Please vote.

Which workers are we talking about? Teachers? Police officers? School maintenance workers? School cafeteria workers? Bus drivers? Road repair crews? Attorneys, engineers, accountants? Public health nurses? Truck drivers? Clerks who process paperwork or answer the phone?

Does a police officer deserve to be paid an adequate living wage? Does a trash collector? Should fair pay be enough for the worker to support himself or herself only? Or should the pay be high enough to also support a child? Two children?

Was answering these questions difficult, impossible, easy? Who should set pay rates? The governor, the private market, the unions, collective bargaining, lottery? Put them all  on the ballot for the voters to decide in a referendum?

How much should bloggers be paid? What? Never mind!

John Hayden

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‘Democratic Revolution’ in Ireland

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Irish General Election - Enda Kenny's Victory ...

Enda Kenny claims victory for Fine Gael at Burlington Hotel. By infomatique via Flickr

Countries with elected parliaments operate under a strict-constructionist interpretation of the “consent of the governed” clause.

Irish voters lashed out in economic pain this week, withdrawing their consent in no uncertain terms, and dismissing Ireland’s longtime ruling party, Fianna Fail. It may be a historic change election.

Enda Kenny, leader of the victorious Fine Gael party, called it a “democratic revolution.” See the Christian Science Monitor story.

Irish voters are incensed over the banking meltdown and the collapse of housing values — which left their country nearly bankrupt — and angry about bailouts by the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Fine Gael is projected to win 75 seats in the Irish parliament, 8 seats short of a majority, according to the Christian Science Monitor. Relying on the revised consent of the governed, Mr. Kenny is expected to forge a coalition government with the Labour Party, projected to win 37 seats.

75 seats + 37 seats = consent of the governed

The consent of the governed is just so tenuously conferred, and is valid so long as the new coalition can dodge a vote of no-confidence.

For the long-powerful Fianna Fail party, consent was replaced by contempt. Fianna Fail was reduced from 77 seats to a woeful minority of 20. And the Green Party was wiped out, losing all 6 of its seats.

Exactly what the new ruling coalition will do differently is far from clear, but the voters are not pleased that their recent proud prosperity has been reduced to indebted austerity.  They believe that ordinary Irish citizens are not responsible for the economic collapse, but are  bearing the resulting hardship.

Mr. Kenny has indicated that he will attempt to renegotiate interest payments on the unpopular bailout.

Spectacular street protests against dictators in Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya have attracted far more news coverage in the U.S.  However, this Irish election is more relevant to the political mood and financial power struggles in the Western democracies. (It’s interesting that the Irish vote comes as Republican governors fight to inflict a strong dose of austerity in the U.S.)

I can’t wait to learn more about the transfer of consent in Ireland. What course will the Fine Gael-Labour coalition chart?

Whether Democrats and Republicans can discern anything of value regarding consent of the governed in the U.S. remains to be seen.

— John Hayden

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Refocusing on Simplicity

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Blogger’s note: Didn’t I start out to write about simplicity here?  Lately, I’ve been too much distracted by the noisy turmoil of political and economic change.  It occurs to me that politics and economics do not seem to lead to peace and simplicity.  Certain songs lead back to simplicity.

“How Can I Keep From Singing” is often identified as a Quaker hymn. However, the music was written by a Baptist minister, Robert Lowry, and first published in 1868, according to Wikipedia. The words are attributed to “Pauline T.”

Almost makes me forget anxiety and worry.

How Can I Keep From Singing

My life goes on in endless song:

Above earth’s lamentation,
I catch the sweet, tho’ far-off hymn

That hails a new creation.
Through all the tumult and the strife

I hear the music ringing;
It finds an echo in my soul–

How can I keep from singing?
What tho’ my joys and comfort die?

The Lord my Saviour liveth;
What tho’ the darkness gather round?

Songs in the night he giveth.
No storm can shake my inmost calm,

While to that refuge clinging;
Since Christ is Lord of heaven and earth,

How can I keep from singing?
I lift my eyes; the cloud grows thin;

I see the blue above it;
And day by day this pathway smooths,

Since first I learned to love it.
The peace of Christ makes fresh my heart,

A fountain ever springing;
All things are mine since I am his–

How can I keep from singing?

Economic Crisis, Political Turmoil, Consent of the Governed

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All governments depend on the consent of the governed. That’s what we learned in high school, so it must be true.

 

We’ll see how that works in the real world of the 21st Century. Does the consent of the governed matter, in the global economy? Or in a world with imaginary national boundaries, do governments depend more on the consent of multinational corporations?

 

The political and social consequences of the Great Recession are beginning to manifest, but the results are unpredictable. For background, see World Economic Crisis Phase II, Political and Social Upheaval.

 

In North Africa and the Middle East, massive street protests oppose long-established regimes. It looks to me like mob rule. The mobs appear to have power to topple dictators, but mobs cannot control the establishment of a new order. As the dictators fall, power can be seized by opportunists, regardless of character, ability, or ideology.

 

In the U.S., Wisconsin and other states are attempting to impose budget austerity and blunt the power of the public-worker unions. It looks like rule by legislative majority. But legislating is a messy business in the U.S. Power in a state is divided between the governor and the legislature, which is itself fractured into two houses.

 

In the example of Wisconsin, Republicans have control of state government following the 2010 election. The rowdy opposition by Democrats and unions will almost surely prove ineffective. The legislative majority will have its way. But under democracy as it has evolved in the U.S., does the legislative majority represent the people, or do the legislators represent corporations and special interests that bankroll their election campaigns? In a modern democracy, power can be purchased by opportunists.

 

Today’s national election in Ireland may provide a first reliable reading on the consent of the governed in the 21st Century.  You can listen to and read a PBS report here.

 

Ireland, you may recall, was one of the first European economies to be staggered by the bursting of world financial and housing bubbles. The Irish voters will probably pass judgment on the austerity measures taken in Ireland, and on the bailout efforts by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

 

Irish turnout is reported at 70 percent. The ruling party is expected to be ousted, but it will take about two days to count the votes.

 

There are so many other economic shoes waiting to drop. The debt problems of Europe, England, America, and Japan remain awesome and unresolved. We still have the possibility of default, or a chain of defaults in Europe, and among states in the U.S.

 

You want far-out scenarios regarding the consent of the governed? Consider the breakup of one or more major political structures.

 

If the USSR could break up, it could happen in the European Union, or even in the U.S.  The stability of Pakistan is not guaranteed. And speaking of stability, what about Saudi Arabia?

 

I could muddle on, wondering about the price of gold, or airline tickets, or $5 gas. But I just confuse myself more with every line I write. I must be watching too much Cable TV News.

See also,  You Say You Want a Revolution?

— John Hayden

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Now You See It, And Now You Don’t: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in a Shell Game

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In honor of Tax Day

Image by swanksalot via Flickr

Welcome to the carnival. Watch closely . . .

The present attack  on “entitlements“ and “debt” is setting the American people up for a deal from hell, a deal the devil thinks we can’t refuse. Just my opinion.

Here’s the devious strategy:

  1. All-out attack on “entitlements,” vilifying Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid . . .
  2. Grudging acknowledgment that the financial structure of Social Security is not so bad . . . compared to the evils of Medicare and Medicaid . . .
  3. Target Medicare and Medicaid as the two programs that will surely sink America, leading to financial collapse . . . (China will rule the world!) . . .
  4. But wait! Maybe there’s a way out . . .

If the American people will agree to kill Medicare and Medicaid, the titans of finance will extend Social Security (for a little while)!

(Do you doubt this mid-February opinion that Republicans would be so callous as to destroy Medicare and Medicaid? See the Republican budget plan, issued at the end of March, to destroy Medicare and Medicaid, among other things.)

Attention old folks and future old folks! Listen up: You can survive without Medicare, right? We’ll keep sending you a diminished Social Security check (no cost-of-living increase). It’s a fair deal. You keep Social Security, we take Medicare. Everyone has to share the pain, right? This will only hurt a little.

It’s a deal you can’t refuse, old folks and future old folks. Or can you? Watch the little ball. Keep you eye on the shells. Now you see it, now you don’t.

If Republicans and their wealthy patrons can pull this off, it will be the biggest public relations coup since the invention of  “the death tax.” Democrats are taking the bait.

— John Hayden

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It Might Be More Serious Than ‘Uncertainty’

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Maybe it’s time for the rulers of the world to start worrying?

Human governments are unstable by nature. Revolutionary change does not run on any logical schedule. Revolution can come when you expect it, or when you don’t. Who in the West could have predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, followed by the breakup of the Soviet Union in late 1991?

The financial capitals of the U.S. and Europe have been in economic turmoil for three years. But the revolution comes first in the Middle East. In a matter of weeks, change comes to Tunisia and Egypt. In recent days, protests spread through the region — in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain.

In Egypt, the focus was secular. The concerns were poverty and democracy. In Bahrain, the conflict has religious overtones. Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Iran will be exempt. Perhaps not.

If it can happen in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, could it happen in America?

In Wisconsin?

In America, a great divide has opened between certain monied elites and the people who work for them. Certain elites have decided they don’t need government workers, and they’re not going to pay for people they don’t need. This drama has been playing out in towns and counties throughout America. A spirit of cooperation in the first year of budget cuts is wearing thin in the second and third years. Tempers are getting short on both sides of the budget tables. Some public workers are getting angry.

The standoff in Wisconsin between the Republican government and the people who work for the government is ugly and ominous. The Republicans intend to break the back of the public unions.

Nearly every other state is facing similar budget dilemmas, and many states are in worse shape than Wisconsin. Among the Republicans who have come to power, there is talk of layoffs and bankruptcies, but not of tax increases.

In the recent U.S. election campaigns, politicians promised to create jobs. It is just now sinking in that politicians intend first to eliminate many more jobs — in federal, state, and local governments.

Unemployment is above nine percent, but corporations and investors are hoarding cash, refusing to invest or hire. They plead uncertainty. Uncertainty on Wall Street, uncertainty about oil price and supply, uncertainty about taxation, uncertainty about public debt.

Look, life is uncertain.

The super-rich can tolerate uncertainty. Their money is in safe, offshore banks.

— John Hayden

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Black Beans And Bread

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The stomach is more powerful than the brain.

Hungry people are desperate people. The leader who can give the people black beans and bread, that leader RULES. It’s something to keep in mind as you watch the political-economic turmoil in Egypt, and other troubled lands.

My high school “Problems of Democracy” teacher, Mr. Thomas, repeated the words “black beans and bread” often, as he explained the iron grip of oppressive regimes, particularly Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe in the 1960s.

When people are starving, a dictator promises black beans and bread, said Mr. Thomas. If the dictator delivers black beans and bread to hungry people, that dictator rules.

Food inflation is often emphasized, when pundits list the grievances of the Egyptian people. Oppression, poverty, food shortages. There you have a recipe for revolution.

An arrogant answer like “Let them eat cake,” is a ticket to the guillotine. In the 21st Century, an arrogant answer of austerity, unemployment, and inflation might result in a one-way ticket out of the country.

Then there’s the short-sighted folly of using agricultural land to grow fuel, instead of food. I can hardly wait until some arrogant politician says, “Let them eat ethanol.”

I’ve heard that food shortages and inflation will likely worsen. Water shortages will soon be even more dangerous than food shortages. The food and water wars are only beginning.

— John Hayden

Just Like Old Times? (via The Hip Flask)

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Republished below is an exceptionally good post, from a blog I’ve just discovered. The subject is bar culture, and I think it will be of interest to many in my generation.

This is as good a time as any to toast the bars of my misspent youth: The Raw Bar in Bethesda; Gentleman Jim’s in Twinbrook; Mr. Henry’s at Tenley Circle; The Schnitzel Haus and the Pirate’s Den in Ocean City; Ireland’s Four Provinces on Connecticut Ave.

And special mention to the bars whose names I can’t remember: That MJC bar? on Upper Wisconsin Ave? Got it, it was called The Lodge. I think it was the first place I drank a beer, when I was 18. And a few blocks south, the Grog and Tankard.

If I habituated all those bars, and lived to remember, I must have had a rollicking good time! The smoking and drinking was a horrendously unhealthy lifestyle. And I admit that I drove my car home from all of those bars, over and over, weekend upon weekend, and in Ocean City, night after night. It is only by the grace of God that I was spared a serious accident. In fact, I never even got a ticket.

I’m thankful I was able to quit smoking at 29, and drinking by about 35. I had good friends who never quit, and they are dead now.

Was life as simple as I remember it then, in the 1960s and 1970s? We can’t have been all that innocent! We had Vietnam, and Civil Rights, and Assassinations, and Watergate. But we still believed in the intrinsic goodness of America, and the U.S. government, and Wall Street.

Without further ado, here’s the post that sparked my bar nostalgia:

Just Like Old Times? A Three Part Lamentation on Modern Drinking Culture Part 1: Progress? The idea of progress and drinking has been on my mind lately.  New drink creations, new styles of decor, and re-imaginations of old classics seem to be all the rage.  New technology follows these new trends, be it bars that pitch their Wi-Fi hotspots or boast of countless high-definition televisions.  These technologies have become ubiquitous in bars and pubs, which has made fi … Read More

via The Hip Flask