The Maryland election is Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown’s to lose. I think he’s leading by at least as much as Gov. Martin O’Malley’s winning margin over Bob Ehrlich four years ago.
If Brown turns out his voters in early voting and on Nov. 4, he wins. Period. Checkmate, Larry Hogan. Game over. Turnout also will be crucial for Democrats in some down-ballot contests.
The election is three weeks from today. Why does my Democratic gut feel like it needs an Alka-Seltzer?
This is the saddest year for Maryland Democrats since Spiro Agnew won the governor’s mansion. At least Bob Ehrlich was a seasoned Maryland politician with years of service in Congress and the General Assembly. Who is this year’s Republican candidate? He’s the son of someone by the same name who was a congressman when I was a teenager, in the last century.
This year, we have two candidates who look sort of gubernatorial, no election for the U.S. Senate, and no contest in any of the state’s eight congressional districts. In Montgomery County, my home county and the largest jurisdiction in Maryland, there’s no visible sign of an impending election. I mean “no sign” literally. You see a few lonely lawns sprouting signs for Republicans. But Democratic signs, nada. And why should there be? Ike Leggett has a lock on the county executive’s office and nine Democratic council candidates are cruising to Election Day on automatic pilot. It’s no wonder the voters are disconnected. This is no way to run a democracy.
Not a single political message in my mailbox since the primary. (Email is a different story. Messages every day from Democrats begging for contributions.) The only candidate to be seen or heard from in Montgomery is Robin Ficker. Seriously, Ficker is the only candidate I’ve seen since the June primary. I attended three Saturday-night outdoor concerts at Black Rock Theater in Germantown during the summer, and Ficker was working the crowd all three times. I seriously doubt, BTW, that Ficker can win, but stranger things have happened. If any Republican has a snowball’s chance in MoCo in 2014, it would have to be Ficker.
I chalk up the political disinterest to two factors.
First, there’s not a single exciting contest to stir the voters’ blood, not in MoCo, and not in Prince George’s County or Baltimore City, the state’s two other Democratic redoubts. If anyone knows of a General Assembly cliffhanger in Central Maryland, please let me know.
The second reason is related to the first. The Democratic Party in MoCo, P.G., and The City is the victim of its own success. Democrats so dominate politics in the big three that all suspense, energy and conflict has been drained from the system. Could you write a good novel or screenplay without CONFLICT?
Without conflict, there is no story. If there is any conflict left in the Big Three, it would be in the primaries, not the General Election. Alas, the entrenchment and almost certain re-election of Democratic incumbents in the local and legislative races has drained excitement even from the primaries. The turnout in June’s Maryland primary is Exhibit A.
With the days ticking down to the start of Early Voting, and the electorate snoozing, a Republican has been creeping slowly up behind the Democrat in the only statewide race that matters, the governor’s race. The candidates are Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, the Democrat who should be the runaway favorite; and Republican Larry Hogan, who unlike Agnew, Ellen Sauerbrey and Bob Ehrlich, the other serious Republicans to run for governor in modern history, has never held elective office.
That’s right. Agnew was county executive of Baltimore County, at that time one of the three most populous jurisdictions. Sauerbrey was minority leader in the House of Delegates, and Ehrlich was a congressman. What are Larry Hogan’s credentials? I can think of two: Hogan looks old enough to be governor, and he promises to cut taxes. Now, even Brown, the Democrat, is promising no new taxes.
Taxes is the only issue on the voter’s minds this election season. I’ve been making some phone calls to voters — a lot of phone calls, actually. When I ask about issues, the answer is taxes. It’s the next thing to unanimous. I’m calling on behalf of a Democratic candidate on the Eastern Shore, where Red Republicans are thick as mosquitoes, but Democrats and unaffiliated voters in the Blue counties have nearly as much antipathy to taxes this year. Just ask Brown.
So there you have it. Democrats in Central Maryland are in a self-induced coma. Republicans in the provinces are hopping mad, as always. I don’t think it will happen, but we could wake up with a Republican governor on Nov. 5.
— John Hayden
For an excellent and concise report on the recent history of gubernatorial politics in Maryland, see “Looks Like We Have A Governor’s Race” over at David Lublin’s blog.
Last weekend, The Washington Post reported poll results showing Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, the Democratic candidate, with a relatively slim lead over Republican Larry Hogan.
Slim, but hardly surprising. The Brown candidacy has seemed eerily reminiscent of KKT from the beginning. The one encouraging difference is that Brown chose a much stronger candidate as his running mate than did KKT.
The political view from Montgomery County and Prince George’s County exaggerates Democratic invincibility in the state as a whole. Baltimore County remains the critical swing county.
Martin O’Malley, Peter O’Malley and County Executive Jim Smith worked to strengthen the Democratic position in Baltimore County, producing a safe margin of victory for O’Malley in 2010. It will be interesting to see how many of those Democratic votes show up in Baltimore County returns in 2014.
— John Hayden
Breaking news, Julia Pierson has resigned this afternoon as chief of the Secret Service. It’s a no-brainer.
But Secret Service reports directly to Dept. of Homeland Security. Homeland Security is now running the show during this time of turmoil. Does that make anyone feel more secure.
For more http://everydayblog.me/2014/10/01/secret-service-keystone-kops-farce/
Secret Service is now Keystone Kops.
Must read from the Onion.
— John Hayden
How a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) works. The premium is smaller, but it includes Part D prescription coverage. What’s the catch? Read all about it.
IT’S NO SECRET. America has devolved into Red State/Blue State political apartheid. It’s based on geography, lifestyle and issues, not on race or color.
The Northeast and Pacific coast are Democratic Blue. The South, Great Plaines and Rocky Mountains are Republican Red. The problem is abetted within states by gerrymandering.
Development of political apartheid in America was accompanied by the hollowing out of the American industrial base, the demise of labor unions, and growth of the financial sector. A deepening divide between rich and poor is salt in the wound.
Red/Blue apartheid is largely responsible for gridlocking the government in Washington. Some states and cities are also experiencing gridlock and financial trouble. If not for the Great Recession and continuing economic decline, perhaps political dysfunction by itself would not be serious.
Now, the sputtering engine of taxation and government finance is running out of gas, as many American corporations scurry to abandon the sinking ship. The technical term for this particular form of treason is “corporate inversion.”
Bill Clinton, campaigning this week with Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, a Red state, made the following comment, as reported by The Washington Post.
“It would be wrong to try and build a future for America that leaves rural America and small-town America out.”
That’s an understatement. If we Americans allow the pathology of political apartheid/ government dysfunction/ economic decline to fester, we will be inviting collapse of democratic government.
Remember, In our hyper-complex world, the speed of change is balls to the wall. We’re constantly vulnerable to black swans. Or if you prefer, Murphy’s Law.
“Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.”
Exactly what would replace democratic government, I do not know. I don’t want to think about it, but the words “fascism” and “communism” come too readily to mind.
In the next post, I’ll consider Red/Blue political apartheid in my own home state, Maryland.
John Hayden
As a public service, for information purposes only, here’s a nifty graphic on the subject of college costs. No fee has been paid for publishing the graphic, and no endorsement of the information or source is implied. No endorsement of any institution named below is intended.
The concept of a bachelor’s degree in three years is seductive, but can it be done without sacrificing the quality of education and the meaning of a degree? Medical education is a separate subject, and I think we could shorten the length of training (and the cost) required for a medical degree. — John
Source: Affordable-Online-Colleges.net
A story in Sunday’s Washington Post alleges that Montgomery County school officials added 15 percentage points to high school Algebra 1 math scores. Why? Because the vast majority of students failed the final exam, that’s why.
School officials provided a variety of excuses for the abysmal test results, and then simply tacked on an extra 15 percentage points to raise the failure rate from 82 percent to only 68 percent, according to the Post story by Donna St. George. Based on the new, improved, fake scores, 623 additional students in MoCo high schools suddenly passed the test.
To celebrate, the schools printed new, improved report cards, which were mailed out three days late. (I’m not making this up. You can read the story in hard copy in the Metro section, page C3, June 29, 2014.)
Hurray for Montgomery County! Another great accomplishment for our heralded public school system.
The Post story provides additional information, but leaves unanswered a host of important educational questions. Do county test scores have any integrity? Any validity? Is there any possible way of knowing if test scores reflect student learning or teacher performance? Who shredded the original report cards? Is there any cure for my early onset cynicism?
Taking this dystopian fantasy a step further, are test scores tabulated on the same computers used to count votes in county elections? Or the same computers used to project the traffic impact of high-density development?
Maybe the Post story is in error? Maybe I’ve terribly misrepresented the story? Can anyone provide a believable explanation?
Alternatively, can anyone provide an entertaining fictional explanation? The comment space below is available free to creative minds. No word count limit. The prize for the best entry is a week of substitute teaching in a ninth-grade algebra class.
— John Hayden
Cheryl Kagan won a close and nasty race for State Senate in District 17 Tuesday with 4,335 votes, defeating Del. Luiz Simmons, who had 3,629 votes. The margin of victory was Kagan, 54.43 percent, Simmons 45.57 percent. All results reported by the Maryland Election Board late Tuesday night are unofficial.
The campaign deteriorated in the final weeks into an exchange of negative advertising by the two candidates.
Kagan, a former delegate, lost to Sen. Jennie Forehand by a narrow margin four years ago. This year, Sen. Forehand opted to retire, setting up the contest between Kagan and Simmons.
(Note: Delegate vote totals below updated at 5 a.m. Wednesday.)
Del. Kumar Barve was the clear winner in the six-way contest for three District 17 seats in the House of Delegates, with 5,344 votes, or 25.49 percent. District 17 includes Gaithersburg and Rockville in the heart of Montgomery County.
First-time candidate Andrew Platt was in second place with 4,274 votes, edging past Del. Jim Gilchrist, who had 4,250, for the third seat.
Former Rockville mayor Susan Hoffman appears to have failed to win a seat by a margin of just 113 votes. She had 4,137 votes.
Platt, Gilchrist and Hoffman were locked in a nail-biter all evening, with each pulling about 20 percent of the vote.
The percentages at 5 a.m. are: Platt, 20.39 percent, Gilchrist, 20.27 percent, and Hoffman, 19.73 percent.
It’s not unusual for delegate races in Montgomery County to be decided by 400 votes, or even 300, but 113 votes is almost too close to call, in my opinion. It’s possible that the outcome could be changed by the absentee and provisional ballots, which will not be counted for several weeks. Is there any way to do a recount or an audit on the county’s paperless, high-tech voting system?
The trailing candidates in District 17 were Laurie-Anne Sayles, with 2,227 votes, and George Zamora.
— John Hayden
Tuesday was a very good primary election day for incumbents in Montgomery County. Unless I missed something in the General Assembly races, every Democratic incumbent running for re-election was a winner. There are no Republican incumbents in MoCo.
Do incumbents have tenure? Are Montgomery County voters that delighted with the status quo?
County Executive Ike Leggett was re-elected by a wide margin over Doug Duncan and Phil Andrews. All incumbent County Council members on the ballot were re-elected by safe margins.
In the two open Montgomery County district seats, Sidney Katz led three other candidates in District 3, and Tom Hucker narrowly edged Evan Glass in District 5. The District 5 contest is close enough that it could be affected by absentee and provisional ballots.
Marc Elrich led the field for the four at-large Council seats, with 53,394 votes, followed by incumbents Nancy Floreen, Hans Riemer and George Leventhal, in that order. Elrich’s coattails were not long enough to pull Beth Daly across the finish line. Daly failed to win a Council seat, finishing fifth and trailing Leventhal by about 6,000 votes. Vivian Malloy finished sixth.
In District 1, Roger Berliner won re-election by a landslide over former Council Member Dutchy Trachtenberg. Craig Rice easily won re-election in District 2, and Nancy Navarro was unopposed in District 3.
— John Hayden
Living Simply And Still On The Grid 