Tag Archives: Government

American Debt Crisis: The Black Swan Is Circling Washington

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Another update on the Debt Crisis of 2011.

An ominous Black Swan is circling Washington, D.C., like a vulture, watching and waiting as the wise men and women of Congress argue over whether to resolve the Debt Crisis of 2011. Or not.

This is the most dangerous situation in Washington since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. I was in Washington on the weekend of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and I remember it well. We didn’t know how close we came to the brink, until it was all over.

This Debt Crisis is surreal. The Cuban Missile Crisis was loaded with live ammunition. The Debt Crisis is loaded with stocks and bonds and hundred-dollar bills. No one knows what will happen if we pile up a lot of stocks and bonds and bills, and set off an uncontrollable chain reaction of unpaid debt. Never been done before. But we are about to go there.

There are three major schools of thought regarding the resolution of this debt crisis. You have your big fix, valued at around $4 trillions, and your little fix, $1.5 trillions to $2 trillions, give or take. (Or is it billions? I can never remember.)

And defying all logic, there is the “no fix” option, supported by the gentlemen and gentleladies from the Tea Party. (What kind of tea are they smoking at that party? Can I get some?)

Translation: Some folks want to fix the debt crisis for the long-term, so Congress can get on to other business.  Some folks will settle for a short-term solution. And some want to commit economic suicide on Aug. 2, rather than risk the chance of possibly serious complications down the road.

Hoo-boy! You think the rich and powerful are anxious about a little economic uncertainty? How are they going to respond to total economic chaos?

Remember the Black Swan? It’s a highly improbable disaster, resulting in unpredictable consequences of a catastrophic nature.  Have a nice weekend.

— John Hayden

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American Debt Crisis: Children Playing With Dynamite

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The words and events of the past few days give me the gut feeling that too many of America’s current political and business leaders are not mature adults, not capable of being serious or working responsibly.

Too many members of Congress seem to think the U.S. government is all a big game, and the winners are the ones who get the most political contributions, and the ones re-elected the most times. They don’t act as if they understand that the government and the economy of the United States are matters of real importance. Instead, they act as if they’re in a reality show on a fictional island, where there are no serious consequences, and the only goal is forming alliances, talking with bravado, and gaining fame.

Too many politicians appear childish, not mature, focusing only on themselves, like a two-year-old would, and on the interest groups that pull their strings. They don’t appear to have developed the capacity to care about the needs of  others, and by others I mean the millions of real people scratching every day to earn a living, support their families, cope with illnesses.

Too many politicians seem always to put themselves and their special interests first; the needs of the larger community are of no interest to them. The needs of others be damned, the needs of the nation be damned. It’s all a game. It’s all about me and my little circle of friends.

America’s Can’t-Do Attitude

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Here’s a glimpse of government in America, as reported in my hometown newspaper.

The City Council is concerned about the large crowds waiting at bus stops, often watching three or four buses pass without stopping because the buses are already jam-packed standing-room-only.

The transportation administrator (we’ll call him H.A.) assured the City Council that his department is “doing the best they can.” He explained:

“The problem is just like the  _____ Steakhouse, you can’t build it big enough, you can’t staff it enough to meet the people, you can’t do it and you can’t afford to do it.”

Four can’t-do-its in one miserable sentence by a high-ranking public bureaucrat! And he’s the boss! Can you imagine how demoralized his employees must feel? It’s enough to make you cry. But wait. H.A. is only getting started. As the newspaper reported:

H.A. added that it is also difficult to fill bus shifts because driving a bus in   _______ City isn’t a fit for everybody. He said currently the department does not have full staffing and there are 32 vacant eight-hour shifts.

“As of today, we are not fully staffed . . . you can’t walk in the door and get in the seat of that bus,” H.A. said.

H.A. explained that if a driver does not have a CDL license (commercial driver’s  license) it would take an additional 30 days to train and acquire a passenger license.

Let me see if I understand this. Unemployment is over 9 percent in America — and higher in our local area — and yet the administrator is unable to hire sufficient bus drivers? The required 30 days training is too high an obstacle to overcome?

A City Council member assured H.A., “There are no problems in us giving you the money you need to have to do the job.” H.A. proudly acknowledged that money is NOT the problem. Money is not going to change his can’t-do attitude.

“If you hand me a bazillion dollars, it doesn’t mean I have all the drivers and all the vehicles,” H.A. said. “It’s an octopus with a lot of tentacles, you make it work.”

(H.A. also affirmed that the supply of buses is not the problem. He has 14 brand new buses waiting to go into service.)

If anyone remained unconvinced that HA can’t do the job, he went on to confirm his determined futility with the following:

“I don’t want anybody in this room to think we will be in a position to deploy a sufficient number of buses every time you’re waiting at the bus stop during a peak hour, on a peak night, on a beautiful hot, sunny evening in June, July and August and that we will be able to pick you up every 10 minutes.” H.A. said. “It’s utopia and it just can’t be done.”

Case closed. Ladies and gentlemen, when any bureaucrat, government agency, corporation, or business becomes so thoroughly demoralized and convinced that it can’t do its job, don’t you think it’s past time for a change?

American workers, businesses, and government used to proudly flaunt a CAN-DO attitude. No More. H.A.’s defeatist can’t-do attitude has become the new standard in America. Can’t-do permeates American government, politics, and business.

America seems immobilized by a deadly epidemic of passive-aggressive sickness. We can’t do it. Even if we could do it, we won’t do it, and nobody can make us do it. You can’t complain about it, because we won’t even answer the phone.

  • “Hello. We value your business.
  • Please press One for Lies.
  • Press Two for Dysfunction.
  • Press Three for Disrespect.
  • Press Four for Excuses.
  • Press Five to be Disconnected.
  • Have a nice day.”

Add up all the can’t-do attitudes like H.A.’s from every corner of this once-great nation, and you get the following:

American workers can’t compete with other workers around the world.

American businesses can’t stop moving factories and jobs overseas.

America can’t maintain its bridges and highways and water and sewer systems.

America can’t afford Medicare and Social Security. (Although every other advanced Western nation can.)

American business is sitting on billions in idle capital, but American business can’t put the money to work because of uncertainty. (Life is uncertain. Starting a business or investing capital is always fraught with uncertainty, by definition. Uncertainty is the nature of capitalism. Profits and stock prices routinely climb a wall of fear.)

The U.S. Senate can’t pass a budget because it can’t get 60 votes. On anything. You name it, the U.S. Senate can’t do it.

Congress can’t follow and the President can’t lead. Democrats and Republicans can’t work together. What did you expect?

We, the voters, can’t be serious. We’re surrounded by momentous problems, begging to be solved; but we can’t pay attention to anything, except sex scandals.

Ladies and gentlemen, our can’t-do attitude is killing whatever is left of the American Dream.

— John Hayden

Another Black Swan Lands — Super Storm In The South — How Much We Depend On Each Other

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Farmer and sons walking in the face of a dust ...

FATHER AND SONS WALKING IN A DUST STORM IN OKLAHOMA IN 1930s. Image via Wikipedia

The Black Swan has landed again, this time in the American South, a Super Storm that roared through Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. The tornadoes that ran with this storm wrecked communities all along its path. The worst devastation appears to have been in Alabama.

When has America seen an inland storm of such magnitude? Our worst storms usually develop over water. In the East, the most powerful weather events are hurricanes. Other natural disasters in my memory are earthquakes, tsunamis, blizzards. Major flooding happens along inland rivers. But an inland storm like this? How often, if ever, has a storm system like this been seen in the history of North America?

The only comparison I can conjure is the Dust Bowl — famously “The Worst Hard Times” — of the 1930s. The worst coincidence of natural and manmade disasters in at least a  century, I would have to say, was the Dust Bowl, which coincided with the worst economic disaster, the Great Depression, which was immediately followed by World War II, the worst military-criminal disaster. I suppose it should be stipulated that the conditions for the Dust Bowl were created by human means.

To many people, it feels like disasters, both natural and manmade, are striking with increasing frequency and ferocity. In the past few years: Hurricane Katrina, earthquake in Haiti, the Gulf Coast oil spill, earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan, multiple wars in the oil region of the Middle East, and now multiple uprisings and civil wars.

We Need Civilization and Cooperation

The first thing people do in natural disasters of such proportion is look around to see what remnants of organized civilization remain standing. Assistance is called for, and expected, from local police and fire agencies, National Guard, Red Cross, and FEMA. Disasters remind us not only how fragile is human life, but also how fragile are human institutions, and civilization itself.

It is more than troubling to realize that millions of American citizens, and their elected representatives, are at this very moment hoping and planning — you might say, “plotting” — to bring down the government of the United States of America, and with it, possibly, the worldwide economy. That would indeed create the worst catastrophe, and the greatest suffering, since the combination of Depression, Dust Bowl, and World War.

It’s almost beyond comprehension, but it’s true. Many Americans now hate government so much that they would prefer anarchy. As police and shocked bystanders say after an especially heinous crime: “This must be the work of insanity or Evil.”

Can you think of another explanation?

— John Hayden

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Government Shutdown Feels Like Beginning Of The End For America

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Human beings have created many empires in recorded history. Every one of them, from the Roman Empire, to the Ottoman Empire, to the British Empire, on which the sun never set — every great empire has failed.

And here we have the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate on the brink of shutting down the government of the United States of America — ON PURPOSE!  If there were any logic, any sense in the world, closing the U.S. government would be treason.

Last time politicians shut down the government, in 1995, it was able to reopen in a few days with no more serious consequence than closing a few national parks.

However, there is no guarantee for the future.  The law of unintended consequences is in effect. We live in the 21st century, the century of the “Black Swan.” Major events, or chains of events, that are unpredictable and highly improbable can happen. You can learn more about the “Black Swan” here.

Politicians who would shut the U.S. government — on purpose! — are tempting fate. Our ancestors fought a Revolutionary War to establish this government. We fought a Civil War to hold the Union together. American soldiers died in foreign wars. And now modern politicians are willing risk throwing it all away over a budgetary dispute? Whatever the unintended consequences, Republicans and Democrats will share the dishonor equally.

We live in perilous times. The U.S. is embroiled in three foreign wars. We recently survived the worst worldwide financial crisis since the Great Depression, but many countries continue to struggle with economic and debt problems of dangerous proportions. Portugal is begging for a bailout by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Portugal is the third European nation to require financial rescue. Japan, after two lost decades of economic stagnation, has been driven to its knees by an epic earthquake. Its nuclear power plants spew radiation, poisoning Japan’s food and water.

Enemies wish to destroy us. We’re threatened by terrorists from abroad, and by homegrown terrorists. War might be unleashed at any time, in Yemen, or the Ivory Coast, or an attack from North Korea or Iran. India and Pakistan are always on the verge of war. So are the Israelis and Palestinians.

What’s my point? Events like a government shutdown can spin out of control. One unexpected consequence cascades into others, until the entire edifice trembles. Who could have predicted that a World Trade Center building might collapse? Both towers disappeared into rubble before lunch on a single day.

On top of all the dangers in the world, U.S. politicians are going to shut down the U.S. Government? For a few days? If politicians cannot agree to keep the government open this week, will they agree to reopen it next week? What if two weeks go by? Three? The longer the crisis continues, the more difficult it will be to end. Be afraid of the “Black Swan.”

Some remnant remains after an empire fails. Rome exists as a city to this day. The British islands remain a functioning nation, with shrunken power. The Mayan civilization left ruins. Descendants of the Mayan people live today throughout Central America.

North America will remain, and millions of people will live in the historical United States. Modern civilization will continue, probably. Beyond that, there are no guarantees for the U.S. as a nation. A federal shutdown  for more than a few weeks would force the states to fend for themselves. A shutdown could lead to default on the sovereign debt, or weakening of U.S. armed forces.

Once started, a process of devolution and decay may accelerate out of control, and who has power to stop the chaos?

— John Hayden

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