Tag Archives: Change

American and European Workers in the New Economy

Posted on by
2

It’s possible that we’re on the brink of historic collapse. Maybe not the Dark Age that Jane Jacobs suggests in her final book. Maybe the decline and fall of the Roman Empire is not an apt comparison. Maybe it will be more like the decline and fall of the British Empire. Or the breakup of the Soviet Union. Maybe only partial collapse, failure of some systems, here and there.

Is the era of labor-intensive capitalism over in the U.S. and Europe?

You can trace the demise of the factory to decisions made in the 1950s. The actual dismantling of American industry began in the 1970s. By 1982, the process was so advanced that we spoke of the industrial heartland as the “rust belt.”

The remaining labor-intensive parts of American industry were taken apart and exported during the globalization of the 1980s and 1990s. After the manufacturing base was hollowed out to a shell, the next labor-intensive sector to collapse was the construction industry.

Capitalism remains strong. But for the first time, capitalism doesn’t need many workers, at least not in America and Europe. What about the knowledge industry? Won’t that provide jobs? Google is big, but its workforce, not so much. Yes, there will be jobs for the lucky, the talented, the highly educated. But ask a recent college grad how easy it is to find a job.

We have what’s left of retailing. Count the vacant stores at your local mall. Walmart thrives. We have fast food. Many jobs, minimum wage.

The new capitalism is technology-intensive and finance-intensive. And coming soon, computers that “think,” to compete with slow, old-fashioned humans.

As manufacturing jobs slipped away, the financial sector created an illusion of growth and wealth.

The workings of the financial sector are a mystery to me. But the events of the past few years have caused me to view banking and finance with fear and loathing. Based on what little I know, the world financial system — many currencies and fluctuating values, with competing central banks and regulators — is dysfunctional and completely irrational. Finance is a crazy system, more likely to create chaos than order. It’s FUBAR (go ahead, look it up).

The institutions of finance have no soul or conscience to oppose corruption. American banks, corporations and wealthy individuals are awash in money, while average Americans, especially underwater “homeowners,” are awash in debt. For whatever reasons, the wizards of finance refuse to spend or invest.

If high-tech, high-finance, American and European capitalism can profit without much labor input, what happens to the surplus workers?

Economic, political and social systems will have to adapt rapidly, or risk collapse. The European Union looks kind of unstable. In the U.S., some states are financial basket cases. Maybe collapse is happening now.

— John Hayden

Related articles

Ocean City End-of-Season Damage Report, 2011 (via Ocean City Blog)

Posted on by
Reply

Economic trouble often leads to political and social trouble. Prolonged economic recession has taken a heavy toll on political tranquility in the U.S. At the local level, disagreements can be particularly disagreeable. Here’s a view from my little part of America, as reported in my other blog.

Ocean City End-of-Season Damage Report, 2011 More than usual, it feels like something is ending in Ocean City this September.  But take this report with a caveat: Events and perceptions often appear distorted after a long summer season, to those who remain when the visitors go home. This year, Hurricane Irene put an exclamation point at the end of the season.  Ocean City was fortunate to survive a nearly direct hit with hardly any damage. The eye of the weakening hurricane swept by offshore … Read More

via Ocean City Blog

The Big JOBS Plan: What is Possible? What is the Goal?

Posted on by
Reply
Cover of

Cover of End of Work

The mob is clamoring for a big, definitive “plan” to “create” JOBS.

The problem is, we are all yearning for a return to the prosperity and good jobs of the 1950s. A return to Middle-class America. That model of American prosperity lasted for a half-century, even as it was eroding away. That model lasted through the inflating 1970s, the greedy 1980s and the bubbling 1990s.

The middle-class model of America, with good-paying jobs all around — it’s over. We aren’t going back to the 1950s. It’s impossible. That’s where President Barack Obama’s JOBS plan has got to start.   Continue reading →

News Flash — Jon Taplin Is Back!

Posted on by
Reply

New Anarchy vs. New Fascism? — Talk About “Living in interesting times!”

Jon Taplin has returned to his blog. Please read Jon Taplin’s insights into the deepening political and economic crisis. See his posts,  “Why Now?” and  “Brave New World Redux.”  Jon Taplin is the writer who explained the ongoing disconnection and unreality in America and the Western world with his series of essays on the “Interregnum.”

Now, in his two recent essays, prompted by the riots in London, Jon Taplin suggests that a “New Anarchy” may lie ahead for the Western World.  If for every action there is a reaction, I’ll up the ante by suggesting that the New Anarchy may be an attempted revolt against a New Corporate-Fascism.

We may live to see, in the near or medium future, a great struggle between the forces of Anarchy and Fascism.  Some may believe it will be the Apocalypse.  Whether or not you believe in Apocalypse, the struggle will likely feel like an upheaval of apocalyptic proportions.

The following words are Jon Taplin’s; I took the liberty of highlighting some words in bold:

“Whatever political will the country might have had for a WPA style program —putting millions of unemployed construction workers back on the job fixing America’s third world infrastructure—now seems to have evaporated. It was perhaps our last chance to avert the Coming Anarchy. With no government infrastructure programs to put people back to work, the private sector is left  trying to create jobs for the 28 million people who are either officially unemployed, working part time but wanting full time work or “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking for a job. This of course is not going to happen—and so we are all facing the problem of a “new normal”, in which a large portion of the high school only population may never find work. Liberal pundits mourn the loss of good jobs for this cohort, but as Bernard Avishai warned in “Strategy and Business” way back in 1997, “Any job that is still simple and repetitive enough to employ a semi- or non-skilled person is going to be even more pressured by new software or by contractor-suppliers in China and Brazil.”  — from Brave New World Redux

I would have some hope for America if President Barack Obama would appoint Jon Taplin to his inner circle of advisers at the White House. Also needed at the White House, Washington Post business and economy writer Steven Pearlstein. See “Who’s to blame for this mess? Let’s start with the corporate lobby.” on page G1 of the Post, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2011.

— John Hayden

‘Democratic Revolution’ in Ireland

Posted on by
Reply
Irish General Election - Enda Kenny's Victory ...

Enda Kenny claims victory for Fine Gael at Burlington Hotel. By infomatique via Flickr

Countries with elected parliaments operate under a strict-constructionist interpretation of the “consent of the governed” clause.

Irish voters lashed out in economic pain this week, withdrawing their consent in no uncertain terms, and dismissing Ireland’s longtime ruling party, Fianna Fail. It may be a historic change election.

Enda Kenny, leader of the victorious Fine Gael party, called it a “democratic revolution.” See the Christian Science Monitor story.

Irish voters are incensed over the banking meltdown and the collapse of housing values — which left their country nearly bankrupt — and angry about bailouts by the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Fine Gael is projected to win 75 seats in the Irish parliament, 8 seats short of a majority, according to the Christian Science Monitor. Relying on the revised consent of the governed, Mr. Kenny is expected to forge a coalition government with the Labour Party, projected to win 37 seats.

75 seats + 37 seats = consent of the governed

The consent of the governed is just so tenuously conferred, and is valid so long as the new coalition can dodge a vote of no-confidence.

For the long-powerful Fianna Fail party, consent was replaced by contempt. Fianna Fail was reduced from 77 seats to a woeful minority of 20. And the Green Party was wiped out, losing all 6 of its seats.

Exactly what the new ruling coalition will do differently is far from clear, but the voters are not pleased that their recent proud prosperity has been reduced to indebted austerity.  They believe that ordinary Irish citizens are not responsible for the economic collapse, but are  bearing the resulting hardship.

Mr. Kenny has indicated that he will attempt to renegotiate interest payments on the unpopular bailout.

Spectacular street protests against dictators in Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya have attracted far more news coverage in the U.S.  However, this Irish election is more relevant to the political mood and financial power struggles in the Western democracies. (It’s interesting that the Irish vote comes as Republican governors fight to inflict a strong dose of austerity in the U.S.)

I can’t wait to learn more about the transfer of consent in Ireland. What course will the Fine Gael-Labour coalition chart?

Whether Democrats and Republicans can discern anything of value regarding consent of the governed in the U.S. remains to be seen.

— John Hayden

Related Articles

Economic Crisis, Political Turmoil, Consent of the Governed

Posted on by
2

 

All governments depend on the consent of the governed. That’s what we learned in high school, so it must be true.

 

We’ll see how that works in the real world of the 21st Century. Does the consent of the governed matter, in the global economy? Or in a world with imaginary national boundaries, do governments depend more on the consent of multinational corporations?

 

The political and social consequences of the Great Recession are beginning to manifest, but the results are unpredictable. For background, see World Economic Crisis Phase II, Political and Social Upheaval.

 

In North Africa and the Middle East, massive street protests oppose long-established regimes. It looks to me like mob rule. The mobs appear to have power to topple dictators, but mobs cannot control the establishment of a new order. As the dictators fall, power can be seized by opportunists, regardless of character, ability, or ideology.

 

In the U.S., Wisconsin and other states are attempting to impose budget austerity and blunt the power of the public-worker unions. It looks like rule by legislative majority. But legislating is a messy business in the U.S. Power in a state is divided between the governor and the legislature, which is itself fractured into two houses.

 

In the example of Wisconsin, Republicans have control of state government following the 2010 election. The rowdy opposition by Democrats and unions will almost surely prove ineffective. The legislative majority will have its way. But under democracy as it has evolved in the U.S., does the legislative majority represent the people, or do the legislators represent corporations and special interests that bankroll their election campaigns? In a modern democracy, power can be purchased by opportunists.

 

Today’s national election in Ireland may provide a first reliable reading on the consent of the governed in the 21st Century.  You can listen to and read a PBS report here.

 

Ireland, you may recall, was one of the first European economies to be staggered by the bursting of world financial and housing bubbles. The Irish voters will probably pass judgment on the austerity measures taken in Ireland, and on the bailout efforts by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

 

Irish turnout is reported at 70 percent. The ruling party is expected to be ousted, but it will take about two days to count the votes.

 

There are so many other economic shoes waiting to drop. The debt problems of Europe, England, America, and Japan remain awesome and unresolved. We still have the possibility of default, or a chain of defaults in Europe, and among states in the U.S.

 

You want far-out scenarios regarding the consent of the governed? Consider the breakup of one or more major political structures.

 

If the USSR could break up, it could happen in the European Union, or even in the U.S.  The stability of Pakistan is not guaranteed. And speaking of stability, what about Saudi Arabia?

 

I could muddle on, wondering about the price of gold, or airline tickets, or $5 gas. But I just confuse myself more with every line I write. I must be watching too much Cable TV News.

See also,  You Say You Want a Revolution?

— John Hayden

Related Articles

It Might Be More Serious Than ‘Uncertainty’

Posted on by
6

Maybe it’s time for the rulers of the world to start worrying?

Human governments are unstable by nature. Revolutionary change does not run on any logical schedule. Revolution can come when you expect it, or when you don’t. Who in the West could have predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, followed by the breakup of the Soviet Union in late 1991?

The financial capitals of the U.S. and Europe have been in economic turmoil for three years. But the revolution comes first in the Middle East. In a matter of weeks, change comes to Tunisia and Egypt. In recent days, protests spread through the region — in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain.

In Egypt, the focus was secular. The concerns were poverty and democracy. In Bahrain, the conflict has religious overtones. Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Iran will be exempt. Perhaps not.

If it can happen in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, could it happen in America?

In Wisconsin?

In America, a great divide has opened between certain monied elites and the people who work for them. Certain elites have decided they don’t need government workers, and they’re not going to pay for people they don’t need. This drama has been playing out in towns and counties throughout America. A spirit of cooperation in the first year of budget cuts is wearing thin in the second and third years. Tempers are getting short on both sides of the budget tables. Some public workers are getting angry.

The standoff in Wisconsin between the Republican government and the people who work for the government is ugly and ominous. The Republicans intend to break the back of the public unions.

Nearly every other state is facing similar budget dilemmas, and many states are in worse shape than Wisconsin. Among the Republicans who have come to power, there is talk of layoffs and bankruptcies, but not of tax increases.

In the recent U.S. election campaigns, politicians promised to create jobs. It is just now sinking in that politicians intend first to eliminate many more jobs — in federal, state, and local governments.

Unemployment is above nine percent, but corporations and investors are hoarding cash, refusing to invest or hire. They plead uncertainty. Uncertainty on Wall Street, uncertainty about oil price and supply, uncertainty about taxation, uncertainty about public debt.

Look, life is uncertain.

The super-rich can tolerate uncertainty. Their money is in safe, offshore banks.

— John Hayden

Related Articles

What Boomers Can Look Forward To, As We Grow Into The Third Part of Life

Posted on by
1

THE AUTUMN OF LIFE MIGHT INVOLVE SOME LOSSES AND SOME LETTING GO. DO YA THINK?

 

The second half of life is different from the first half. What worked in the first half might not work in the second half. So I have been told, and so I believe.

That the second half of life is “different” is, of course, obvious. But what are the differences, what are the adjustments we will have to make? These are not idle questions, for mature people trying to cope in the complex and confusing world of the 21st Century.

I’ve been thinking for some time that this Consternation blog — Consternation from the perspective of a Baby Boomer over 60 — ought to take a stab at these questions.

LIFE CAN BE A FEAST AT ANY AGE, EVEN IF IT'S HOMEMADE SOUP WITH A GLASS OF WINE.

Let’s start by clarifying the questions that I hope to examine, with your help. First, it seems more useful to look at life in thirds, and to say that the third one-third of life is different from the first one-third and the second one-third. Exactly what are the differences?

What are the conditions of life at each of the three stages? What are the problems, the challenges, the work you need to accomplish? Retirement does not necessarily mean the end of work. Particularly important, what are the changes you have to make, and the changes you have to accept, in the third part of life? Let’s stipulate that we Baby Boomers are probably going to continue to learn and grow, even this late in the game. Especially this late in the game.

Let’s acknowledge that the third part of life is going to bring some losses, some goodbyes, some letting go.  We’ll have some sadness, I expect, but hopefully also some joy and accomplishments. I hope for connectedness, rather than isolation. I imagine that a sense of connectedness and belonging will be very important.

AT MY AGE, YOU CAN TAKE A NAP WHENEVER YOU WANT. PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE GRAY HAIR. WAKE ME UP IN TIME FOR SUPPER.

The following video, which I stumbled upon at the Rowdy Kittens blog, might give us a common starting point, and some thoughts to ponder. It’s a talk by Brene Brown. She begins with the statement that, “Connection is why we’re here,” and goes on to issues of disconnection, shame, worthiness, belonging, and vulnerability.

The video is only 20 minutes long, and I hope you’ll give it a listen. Ms. Brown offers many insights on the human condition. She says that vulnerability is the core of shame, and vulnerability is also the birthplace of joy. I have no doubt that many Baby Boomers will have a sense of increasing vulnerability in the third part of life. Perhaps we will be able to embrace it as an opportunity.

Thanks to Rowdy Kittens and to the TED Web Site (“Riveting talks by remarkable people, free to the world”) for making Ms. Brown’s insights available to all.

I have no idea how many posts it’s going to take to examine the issues of the third part of life. I’m not prepared to venture any further in this post. Whether or not you listen to Ms. Brown’s talk, I hope you’ll consider offering some of your own thoughts in the comments area below. Your participation is welcome.

— John Hayden

Related Articles

Political Zeitgeist In America

Posted on by
2

Is there any political reality remaining in America? I’ve been trying to make sense of the political zeitgeist following the election of 2010. Two contradictory perspectives came into focus this week.

Vice President Joe Biden summed up the message from the electorate on “Meet the Press.” Voters want elected officials of both parties to work together and compromise, Mr. Biden said.

MICHELLE RHEE. -- Wikimedia Commons public domain photo

Michelle Rhee, an education reformer who used to be chancellor of D.C. public schools, stated a different position in “Newsweek.”

“I don’t think consensus can  be the goal.” said Ms. Rhee. And: “We can’t shy away from conflict.”

That’s the tension in American democracy — longing for peace and compromise on one hand; and an appetite for political conflict on the other. Voters who are comfortable with the status quo yearn for politics without conflict. They see reformers as troublemakers.

Reformers seeking change are impatient with compromise. They’re willing to tolerate a degree of political unpleasantness to achieve a goal. Compromise usually doesn’t bring them closer to the goal. Compromise simply kicks the problem down the road for a year or three.

 

THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE IS NOT ONLY POLARIZED AT THE EXTREMES. THE INDEPENDENTS IN THE MIDDLE HAVE LITTLE USE FOR EITHER SIDE. Wikimedia Commons public domain image.

It’s human nature to seek the easiest path, to avoid pain and sacrifice. So it’s not surprising that a majority wants compromise. That’s what happened this week, when President Obama crafted an agreement with Senate Republicans to extend current tax cuts for the wealthy, and at the same time extend unemployment compensation for the poor.

The tax-cut compromise is the easy path. It avoids pain all around. But it also adds billions to the national debt. The majority of voters got what they wanted, a minimum of conflict. They are pleased to kick difficult decisions about the national debt and economic austerity down the road.

Americans seem to be dangerously addicted to the easy path. European nations are engaged in national debates (often in the streets) over austerity measures to address their debt problems. America is falling behind on debt, just as we are falling behind in economic competitiveness.

Most troubling of all is that America has fallen way behind other advanced countries in education. Michelle Rhee knows about the public schools:

“The truth is that despite a handful of successful reforms, the state of American education is pitiful, and getting worse.”

If we’re not competitive on education, we won’t have a chance to be competitive economically. And the American electorate complacently ignores the education crisis. In fact, state and local governments are preparing to cut deeply into funding for education, in order to balance government budgets.

Ms. Rhee is quite forthright about the political path to improving education in America. And it’s definitely not the easy path.

“Public school reform is the civil-rights issue of our generation. Well, during the civil-rights movement, they didn’t work everything out by sitting down collaboratively and compromising. Conflict was necessary in order to move the agenda forward. There are some fundamental disagreements that exist right now about what kind of progress is possible and what strategies will be most effective. Right now, what we need to do is fight.”

Any questions? Yes, political conflict is necessary for problem-solving and progress. In some other countries, they resolve political differences through violent conflict. In America, we resolve political differences through elections. Settling our conflicts through civil debate, rather than violence, is the great achievement of democracy in America.

We need to start addressing our political conflicts, not avoiding them. The sooner the better.

— John Hayden

Related Articles

“You Say You Want a Revolution?”

Posted on by
5

A picture is worth a million words. There seems to be a difference of opinion throughout Europe (and in America, too) concerning money, and debt. Also, some mild disagreement about who should pay the price and make the sacrifices, and who should get bailed out.

Schoolgirls link hands to protect a police van during student protests in London. -- Peter Marshall photo.

Baroque in Hackney reports that a younger generation — “The Kids” — is seizing responsibility because their elders are cowed by the powers that be. Ms. B’s post is enlightening. I urge you to read it.

How far will the wealthy elites in Europe and America push the children of the former middle-class? If you want to know which way the wind is blowing, please read this article by Jonathan Jones from The Guardian. Here’s a brief excerpt:

“For this picture tells a lot, very quickly. It tells us the menace of violence is real as anger grows among groups directly afflicted by the coalition’s cuts. Yet it also reveals that most protesters are peaceful, idealistic, with a sense of history and of the gravity of their actions. Most of all it tells us how amazingly young many of them are.

Future historians may well write that the Conservative-Liberal coalition was doomed the day schoolchildren took to the streets to assert their right to a university education.”

People are protesting in the streets in France (Social Security); England (college tuition); Ireland (budget cuts); and the European Union is getting ready to bail out the biggest banks in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and maybe Italy. The U.S. already bailed out its bankers, and people protested with their votes.

So this is the way it’s going to be? The rich get richer; the middle-class get screwed?

“You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know that you can count me out
Don’t you know it’s gonna be all right
all right, all right

You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We’d all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We’re doing what we can
But when you want money
for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don’t you know it’s gonna be all right
all right, all right”

— The Beatles

I’ve written about the consequences of what I would call “capitalism off the hook” before. I didn’t think the reaction in the streets and at the voting places would be so swift or serious.

With apologies to Buffalo Springfield, I don’t think it’s paranoia. I think, “There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear.”

Mr. Jones of The Guardian describes what’s happening as follows:

“We can look at this picture and see a mass movement rapidly evolving as a generation goes beyond merely taking to the streets and starts finding a larger meaning in its rebellion, and imposing order in new ways. What these girls are showing us is that this is not just about rage. It is a defiant stand for youth and hope.”

Do you think President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke understand what’s happening?

“The Kids” and their “cowed” parents understand that they’re being screwed. Government leaders understand the consequences of tax cuts for the rich and budget cuts for the poor.

The wealthy elites understand that they’re screwing the poor, and what’s left of the middle-class. The wealthy always believe they have a right to exploit the poor.

So it looks like it’s the Powerful elites against “The Kids.” You can call it “class warfare,” if you want. I’m afraid that the Powerful will make precious few concessions to “The Kids,” at least not without an ugly struggle. How it will play out, no one knows.

— John Hayden

Related Articles